NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY LOU
Points 75.9 75.0
Total Points   150.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 16.2
Points From Free Throws 14.1 18.9
Shooting EKY LOU
Field Goals Made 27.1 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 60.8
Field Goal % 45.5% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 45.1
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 44.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 15.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 14.1 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 25.5
Free Throw % 69.3% 74.2%
Ball Control EKY LOU
Rebounds 37.0 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 11.6
Turnovers 10.7 9.1
Blocked Shots 5.8 2.5
Steals 5.4 5.5
Fouls 16.8 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY LOU
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 75.4
% of Possessions with EKY LOU
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 52.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 18.1%
Player Fouled 19.6% 23.1%
Turnover 14.6% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY LOU
Shot Blocked 4.3% 9.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 29.9%