NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NICH MVSU
Points 78.3 57.7
Total Points   136.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 31.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.9 13.4
Points From Free Throws 18.4 12.9
Shooting NICH MVSU
Field Goals Made 25.5 20.2
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 53.5
Field Goal % 49.2% 37.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 41.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 4.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 42.7% 28.3%
Free Throws Made 18.4 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 19.6
Free Throw % 72.4% 66.0%
Ball Control NICH MVSU
Rebounds 37.2 30.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.9 21.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.0
Turnovers 11.4 13.0
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.7
Steals 7.8 6.9
Fouls 16.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NICH MVSU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 65.7
% of Possessions with NICH MVSU
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 19.8%
Player Fouled 22.8% 22.9%
Turnover 16.4% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 11.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NICH MVSU
Shot Blocked 5.1% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 24.3%