NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NICH ILL
Points 68.1 92.5
Total Points   160.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 44.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 24.8
Points From Free Throws 12.6 23.1
Shooting NICH ILL
Field Goals Made 24.4 30.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 59.1
Field Goal % 39.5% 51.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 43.3 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 40.7% 62.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 12.6 23.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 31.3
Free Throw % 72.4% 73.8%
Ball Control NICH ILL
Rebounds 28.2 44.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 13.1
Turnovers 9.3 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.4
Steals 4.8 4.9
Fouls 19.0 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Nicholls

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NICH ILL
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 78.2
% of Possessions with NICH ILL
2 Point Attempt 52.4% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 26.8%
Player Fouled 17.7% 26.1%
Turnover 12.8% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NICH ILL
Shot Blocked 7.6% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 39.2%