NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY TNTC
Points 77.2 64.3
Total Points   141.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.7 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 18.8
Points From Free Throws 11.0 11.0
Shooting EKY TNTC
Field Goals Made 29.2 23.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 60.0
Field Goal % 46.8% 39.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 40.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 11.0 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 15.8
Free Throw % 69.3% 69.5%
Ball Control EKY TNTC
Rebounds 41.9 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 31.0 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 7.3
Turnovers 8.8 9.5
Blocked Shots 6.3 2.0
Steals 5.4 4.4
Fouls 13.1 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY TNTC
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 68.2
% of Possessions with EKY TNTC
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 53.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 21.6%
Player Fouled 17.5% 18.6%
Turnover 12.4% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY TNTC
Shot Blocked 3.5% 10.2%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 19.0%