NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY XAV
Points 72.0 81.6
Total Points   153.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 21.2
Points From Free Throws 12.2 18.7
Shooting EKY XAV
Field Goals Made 26.7 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 64.4 65.8
Field Goal % 41.5% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 45.9 47.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 43.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 38.9%
Free Throws Made 12.2 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 24.7
Free Throw % 69.3% 75.8%
Ball Control EKY XAV
Rebounds 37.9 43.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 13.8
Turnovers 9.9 8.3
Blocked Shots 7.1 3.2
Steals 4.4 6.2
Fouls 15.8 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY XAV
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 75.3 79.6
% of Possessions with EKY XAV
2 Point Attempt 53.1% 52.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 20.0%
Player Fouled 18.2% 21.4%
Turnover 13.4% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY XAV
Shot Blocked 5.0% 11.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 34.1%