NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY NKU
Points 76.9 73.7
Total Points   150.6
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 19.3
Points From Free Throws 12.2 15.9
Shooting EKY NKU
Field Goals Made 28.3 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 64.2
Field Goal % 45.7% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 45.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 42.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 12.2 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 21.7
Free Throw % 69.3% 73.1%
Ball Control EKY NKU
Rebounds 41.7 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 11.8
Turnovers 11.8 8.8
Blocked Shots 6.6 2.0
Steals 4.7 7.4
Fouls 14.9 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY NKU
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 76.2
% of Possessions with EKY NKU
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 52.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 21.2%
Player Fouled 18.4% 20.3%
Turnover 16.1% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY NKU
Shot Blocked 3.1% 10.8%
Offensive Rebound 33.9% 28.7%