NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY QNC
Points 83.3 75.7
Total Points   158.9
Points From 2-Pointers 48.1 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 24.3
Points From Free Throws 13.7 16.0
Shooting EKY QNC
Field Goals Made 31.2 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 65.1 66.2
Field Goal % 47.9% 39.0%
2 Pointers Made 24.1 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 45.2 43.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.2% 40.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 13.7 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 22.6
Free Throw % 69.3% 71.0%
Ball Control EKY QNC
Rebounds 43.5 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 31.4 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 11.5
Turnovers 9.7 8.6
Blocked Shots 8.0 2.5
Steals 4.8 6.0
Fouls 15.3 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY QNC
Total Possessions 75.1
Effective Scoring Chances 77.5 78.1
% of Possessions with EKY QNC
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 25.2%
Player Fouled 19.6% 20.4%
Turnover 12.9% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY QNC
Shot Blocked 3.9% 12.5%
Offensive Rebound 32.4% 26.8%