NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RMU SFPA
Points 75.5 66.8
Total Points   142.2
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 18.8
Points From Free Throws 13.4 12.8
Shooting RMU SFPA
Field Goals Made 26.7 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 56.0
Field Goal % 45.2% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 13.4 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 21.3
Free Throw % 69.8% 60.1%
Ball Control RMU SFPA
Rebounds 39.3 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 10.9
Turnovers 11.0 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.1
Steals 4.7 5.2
Fouls 15.3 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Rob Morris

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RMU SFPA
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 69.0
% of Possessions with RMU SFPA
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 22.4%
Player Fouled 20.7% 22.1%
Turnover 15.9% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken RMU SFPA
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 37.8% 29.5%