NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VAN ALA
Points 79.1 92.6
Total Points   171.7
Points From 2-Pointers 42.3 41.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 31.4
Points From Free Throws 16.7 19.8
Shooting VAN ALA
Field Goals Made 27.9 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 67.0 58.3
Field Goal % 41.6% 53.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 64.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 10.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 39.7%
Free Throws Made 16.7 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 27.2
Free Throw % 73.3% 73.0%
Ball Control VAN ALA
Rebounds 32.2 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 31.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 9.6
Turnovers 8.3 12.7
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.8
Steals 8.6 4.3
Fouls 18.7 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VAN ALA
Total Possessions 77.6
Effective Scoring Chances 80.0 74.5
% of Possessions with VAN ALA
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 35.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 29.6%
Player Fouled 20.6% 24.1%
Turnover 10.7% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 11.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken VAN ALA
Shot Blocked 8.4% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 30.9%