NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VAN MISS
Points 69.8 78.8
Total Points   148.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 27.1
Points From Free Throws 14.4 13.2
Shooting VAN MISS
Field Goals Made 24.4 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 60.2
Field Goal % 40.3% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.7% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 39.5%
Free Throws Made 14.4 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 18.1
Free Throw % 70.7% 73.0%
Ball Control VAN MISS
Rebounds 36.3 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 10.4
Turnovers 9.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.3
Steals 5.4 5.5
Fouls 13.4 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Vanderbilt

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VAN MISS
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 71.5
% of Possessions with VAN MISS
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 28.0%
Player Fouled 20.1% 19.1%
Turnover 13.6% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken VAN MISS
Shot Blocked 7.3% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.9% 30.1%