NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VAN UK
Points 71.2 91.0
Total Points   162.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 44.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 33.2
Points From Free Throws 15.4 13.7
Shooting VAN UK
Field Goals Made 24.2 33.1
Field Goals Attempted 63.9 63.8
Field Goal % 37.8% 51.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.0% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 43.6%
Free Throws Made 15.4 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 17.6
Free Throw % 70.7% 78.2%
Ball Control VAN UK
Rebounds 34.5 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 32.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 8.9
Turnovers 9.3 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.1
Steals 5.5 5.4
Fouls 13.6 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VAN UK
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 74.4
% of Possessions with VAN UK
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 29.8%
Player Fouled 20.2% 18.2%
Turnover 12.4% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken VAN UK
Shot Blocked 8.1% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 27.4%