NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEB PUR
Points 69.9 81.8
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 27.6 28.3
Points From Free Throws 9.7 15.8
Shooting NEB PUR
Field Goals Made 25.5 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 62.6 61.4
Field Goal % 40.7% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 28.5 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 9.7 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 21.6
Free Throw % 76.0% 73.0%
Ball Control NEB PUR
Rebounds 30.1 44.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 14.4
Turnovers 8.6 9.4
Blocked Shots 1.6 3.5
Steals 5.4 5.1
Fouls 15.7 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEB PUR
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 75.6
% of Possessions with NEB PUR
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 35.6% 28.8%
Player Fouled 16.1% 22.2%
Turnover 12.2% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEB PUR
Shot Blocked 5.8% 2.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 39.3%