NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHS NCAT
Points 71.4 65.1
Total Points   136.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 15.0
Points From Free Throws 14.4 14.8
Shooting CHS NCAT
Field Goals Made 25.4 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 54.4
Field Goal % 43.8% 41.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 28.3%
Free Throws Made 14.4 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 21.0
Free Throw % 70.5% 70.8%
Ball Control CHS NCAT
Rebounds 39.3 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 9.6
Turnovers 10.2 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.6
Steals 6.2 4.9
Fouls 15.8 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHS NCAT
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 67.2
% of Possessions with CHS NCAT
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 22.4%
Player Fouled 18.7% 23.3%
Turnover 15.1% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHS NCAT
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 38.3% 27.3%