NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BYU USU
Points 78.5 74.4
Total Points   152.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 40.8
Points From 3-Pointers 29.0 17.1
Points From Free Throws 12.0 16.4
Shooting BYU USU
Field Goals Made 28.4 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 63.9 56.2
Field Goal % 44.4% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 30.5 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 12.0 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 22.7
Free Throw % 72.5% 72.5%
Ball Control BYU USU
Rebounds 37.5 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 6.6
Turnovers 8.6 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.6
Steals 5.0 5.0
Fouls 17.6 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BYU USU
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 69.8
% of Possessions with BYU USU
2 Point Attempt 39.9% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 36.4% 22.3%
Player Fouled 18.8% 24.4%
Turnover 11.9% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken BYU USU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 19.5%