NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BYU GONZ
Points 78.9 79.4
Total Points   158.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 48.3
Points From 3-Pointers 34.3 17.7
Points From Free Throws 10.8 13.4
Shooting BYU GONZ
Field Goals Made 28.3 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 65.6 60.3
Field Goal % 43.2% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 24.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 43.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 31.9 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 10.8 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 18.2
Free Throw % 72.5% 73.6%
Ball Control BYU GONZ
Rebounds 36.5 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 8.3
Turnovers 8.2 8.2
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.7
Steals 4.3 5.0
Fouls 15.1 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: BYU

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BYU GONZ
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 71.3
% of Possessions with BYU GONZ
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 54.2%
3 Point Attempt 37.9% 20.8%
Player Fouled 17.8% 21.2%
Turnover 11.5% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BYU GONZ
Shot Blocked 4.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.1% 25.1%