NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BYU HOU
Points 65.1 72.9
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 23.3 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 28.5 20.9
Points From Free Throws 13.4 13.7
Shooting BYU HOU
Field Goals Made 21.1 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 60.7
Field Goal % 37.9% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 11.6 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 25.3 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 30.4 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 13.4 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 19.3
Free Throw % 72.5% 71.1%
Ball Control BYU HOU
Rebounds 38.0 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 10.7
Turnovers 12.1 6.7
Blocked Shots 2.1 3.7
Steals 3.5 7.4
Fouls 14.9 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: BYU

Expected Effect: +1.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BYU HOU
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 72.5
% of Possessions with BYU HOU
2 Point Attempt 31.3% 50.5%
3 Point Attempt 37.5% 25.3%
Player Fouled 21.2% 21.8%
Turnover 17.6% 9.8%
Opponent Steal 10.8% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken BYU HOU
Shot Blocked 6.2% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 28.4%