NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU ORE
Points 74.8 61.1
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 26.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 18.7
Points From Free Throws 13.3 15.5
Shooting HOU ORE
Field Goals Made 26.8 19.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 51.7
Field Goal % 43.9% 38.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 13.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 43.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 13.3 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 21.2
Free Throw % 71.1% 72.9%
Ball Control HOU ORE
Rebounds 37.8 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 9.5
Turnovers 7.4 12.6
Blocked Shots 5.2 2.7
Steals 7.4 4.4
Fouls 16.6 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU ORE
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 64.4
% of Possessions with HOU ORE
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 26.4%
Player Fouled 19.9% 24.6%
Turnover 11.0% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU ORE
Shot Blocked 5.3% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 33.6% 27.3%