NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU UCF
Points 71.0 57.2
Total Points   128.2
Points From 2-Pointers 31.7 23.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 17.0
Points From Free Throws 16.6 16.7
Shooting HOU UCF
Field Goals Made 23.4 17.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 49.9
Field Goal % 40.8% 34.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 11.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 38.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 16.6 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 24.4
Free Throw % 71.1% 68.6%
Ball Control HOU UCF
Rebounds 37.7 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 11.3
Turnovers 8.7 14.1
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.4
Steals 8.1 5.3
Fouls 16.7 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU UCF
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 65.2
% of Possessions with HOU UCF
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 37.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 23.7%
Player Fouled 23.2% 24.6%
Turnover 12.7% 20.7%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU UCF
Shot Blocked 6.9% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 33.0% 30.9%