NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU UCF
Points 72.0 57.6
Total Points   129.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 23.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 17.0
Points From Free Throws 16.8 17.1
Shooting HOU UCF
Field Goals Made 23.7 17.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 49.8
Field Goal % 40.8% 35.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 11.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 30.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 38.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 16.8 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 25.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 68.6%
Ball Control HOU UCF
Rebounds 37.9 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 11.1
Turnovers 8.6 14.1
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.5
Steals 8.2 5.4
Fouls 17.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU UCF
Total Possessions 68.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 65.3
% of Possessions with HOU UCF
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 37.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 23.8%
Player Fouled 23.2% 24.9%
Turnover 12.5% 20.6%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 12.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU UCF
Shot Blocked 7.3% 9.0%
Offensive Rebound 33.0% 30.5%