NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU RICE
Points 83.1 54.6
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.9 22.1
Points From 3-Pointers 30.1 19.5
Points From Free Throws 12.1 13.0
Shooting HOU RICE
Field Goals Made 30.5 17.5
Field Goals Attempted 64.8 50.3
Field Goal % 47.1% 34.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 11.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 28.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 38.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.6 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 40.8% 30.1%
Free Throws Made 12.1 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 18.8
Free Throw % 71.1% 69.2%
Ball Control HOU RICE
Rebounds 41.3 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 14.6 8.7
Turnovers 6.2 14.3
Blocked Shots 6.3 2.2
Steals 9.7 3.3
Fouls 14.7 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU RICE
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 61.4
% of Possessions with HOU RICE
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 36.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 27.6%
Player Fouled 18.5% 22.0%
Turnover 9.2% 21.3%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 14.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU RICE
Shot Blocked 4.6% 9.9%
Offensive Rebound 39.5% 24.6%