NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU ECU
Points 79.3 53.7
Total Points   133.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 22.7
Points From 3-Pointers 26.9 16.7
Points From Free Throws 13.5 14.3
Shooting HOU ECU
Field Goals Made 28.4 16.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 50.3
Field Goal % 47.0% 33.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 11.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 30.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 37.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.4 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 27.9%
Free Throws Made 13.5 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 20.9
Free Throw % 71.1% 68.6%
Ball Control HOU ECU
Rebounds 41.0 30.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 20.7
Rebounds - Offensive 14.6 10.1
Turnovers 7.5 12.9
Blocked Shots 5.7 1.8
Steals 7.9 4.7
Fouls 14.7 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU ECU
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 62.9
% of Possessions with HOU ECU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 38.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 25.5%
Player Fouled 20.1% 22.4%
Turnover 11.5% 19.7%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 12.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU ECU
Shot Blocked 3.7% 9.5%
Offensive Rebound 41.3% 27.5%