NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COFC UNC
Points 71.0 85.8
Total Points   156.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 27.0 25.5
Points From Free Throws 11.7 16.8
Shooting COFC UNC
Field Goals Made 25.2 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 65.2 62.7
Field Goal % 38.6% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 41.2
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 28.2 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 11.7 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 22.2
Free Throw % 72.3% 75.4%
Ball Control COFC UNC
Rebounds 34.7 42.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 32.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 10.6
Turnovers 8.9 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.3
Steals 4.3 5.6
Fouls 15.8 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Col Charlestn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COFC UNC
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 74.5 76.0
% of Possessions with COFC UNC
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.2% 25.2%
Player Fouled 18.9% 21.5%
Turnover 12.1% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken COFC UNC
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 29.9%