NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKST HOU
Points 55.9 77.7
Total Points   133.6
Points From 2-Pointers 21.1 44.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 21.5
Points From Free Throws 14.8 11.7
Shooting OKST HOU
Field Goals Made 17.2 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 47.9 62.8
Field Goal % 35.9% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 10.6 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 25.2 42.6
2 Point Shooting % 41.9% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.8 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 16.4
Free Throw % 71.2% 71.1%
Ball Control OKST HOU
Rebounds 31.5 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 13.0
Turnovers 15.2 7.0
Blocked Shots 1.8 5.4
Steals 3.9 10.6
Fouls 13.3 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKST HOU
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 60.6 73.3
% of Possessions with OKST HOU
2 Point Attempt 32.4% 52.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 24.9%
Player Fouled 23.3% 19.7%
Turnover 22.6% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 15.8% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKST HOU
Shot Blocked 8.7% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 36.0%