NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKST ISU
Points 60.2 76.2
Total Points   136.3
Points From 2-Pointers 24.8 45.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 18.6
Points From Free Throws 12.8 11.7
Shooting OKST ISU
Field Goals Made 19.9 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 49.3 59.9
Field Goal % 40.4% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 12.4 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 23.8 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 12.8 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 16.6
Free Throw % 71.2% 70.4%
Ball Control OKST ISU
Rebounds 32.0 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 10.0
Turnovers 16.2 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.4
Steals 5.0 10.9
Fouls 14.8 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKST ISU
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 61.0 70.1
% of Possessions with OKST ISU
2 Point Attempt 30.2% 53.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 21.6%
Player Fouled 20.9% 21.5%
Turnover 23.6% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 15.9% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKST ISU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 30.0%