NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKST ISU
Points 60.3 76.0
Total Points   136.3
Points From 2-Pointers 24.6 45.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 18.8
Points From Free Throws 13.0 11.9
Shooting OKST ISU
Field Goals Made 19.9 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 49.4 59.6
Field Goal % 40.2% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 12.3 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 23.7 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 13.0 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 16.7
Free Throw % 71.2% 70.8%
Ball Control OKST ISU
Rebounds 32.1 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 9.9
Turnovers 16.1 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.4
Steals 5.2 11.0
Fouls 14.9 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKST ISU
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 61.2 70.0
% of Possessions with OKST ISU
2 Point Attempt 30.1% 53.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.7% 21.5%
Player Fouled 21.1% 21.7%
Turnover 23.4% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 16.1% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKST ISU
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 29.5%