NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MCNS SMU
Points 72.8 73.5
Total Points   146.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 27.4
Points From Free Throws 15.6 13.7
Shooting MCNS SMU
Field Goals Made 25.0 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 58.9
Field Goal % 43.6% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 27.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 15.6 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 20.0
Free Throw % 69.1% 68.6%
Ball Control MCNS SMU
Rebounds 33.8 39.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.3 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 14.4
Turnovers 9.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.8
Steals 8.0 5.6
Fouls 14.8 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: S Methodist

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MCNS SMU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 71.7
% of Possessions with MCNS SMU
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 31.5%
Player Fouled 23.1% 21.3%
Turnover 14.1% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 11.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MCNS SMU
Shot Blocked 8.4% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.8% 39.3%