NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDAK ARK
Points 71.2 89.6
Total Points   160.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 49.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 20.7
Points From Free Throws 16.4 19.9
Shooting SDAK ARK
Field Goals Made 24.0 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 61.5
Field Goal % 40.5% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 24.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 42.5% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 16.4 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 26.0
Free Throw % 76.4% 76.5%
Ball Control SDAK ARK
Rebounds 33.1 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 9.0
Turnovers 12.4 6.9
Blocked Shots 1.0 6.6
Steals 2.8 6.8
Fouls 18.4 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: South Dakota

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDAK ARK
Total Possessions 75.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 77.5
% of Possessions with SDAK ARK
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 22.9%
Player Fouled 22.2% 24.4%
Turnover 16.5% 9.2%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 3.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDAK ARK
Shot Blocked 10.8% 1.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 26.6%