NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDAK SJSU
Points 74.4 80.7
Total Points   155.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 29.3
Points From Free Throws 13.6 8.8
Shooting SDAK SJSU
Field Goals Made 26.2 31.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 62.9
Field Goal % 46.7% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 26.2
3 Point Shooting % 42.9% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 13.6 8.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 12.8
Free Throw % 76.4% 68.6%
Ball Control SDAK SJSU
Rebounds 34.8 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 7.4
Turnovers 11.0 6.3
Blocked Shots 1.1 3.8
Steals 2.2 5.3
Fouls 12.6 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: South Dakota

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDAK SJSU
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 70.8
% of Possessions with SDAK SJSU
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 33.8%
Player Fouled 20.6% 18.1%
Turnover 15.8% 9.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 3.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDAK SJSU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 2.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 21.8%