NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA UGA
Points 92.7 78.2
Total Points   170.9
Points From 2-Pointers 41.8 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 36.0 23.5
Points From Free Throws 15.0 17.9
Shooting ALA UGA
Field Goals Made 32.9 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 67.1 61.8
Field Goal % 49.0% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 59.5% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 31.9 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 15.0 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 25.1
Free Throw % 76.4% 71.6%
Ball Control ALA UGA
Rebounds 42.1 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 9.3
Turnovers 10.1 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.4
Steals 6.0 6.3
Fouls 17.5 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA UGA
Total Possessions 77.1
Effective Scoring Chances 79.1 76.2
% of Possessions with ALA UGA
2 Point Attempt 38.7% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 35.2% 28.0%
Player Fouled 19.6% 22.7%
Turnover 13.2% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA UGA
Shot Blocked 5.7% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.3% 23.6%