NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA GONZ
Points 88.0 87.7
Total Points   175.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 52.8
Points From 3-Pointers 36.3 18.3
Points From Free Throws 14.8 16.6
Shooting ALA GONZ
Field Goals Made 30.5 32.5
Field Goals Attempted 66.9 63.9
Field Goal % 45.6% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 26.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 45.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.1 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 31.3 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 14.8 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 22.5
Free Throw % 76.4% 73.6%
Ball Control ALA GONZ
Rebounds 36.8 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 11.0
Turnovers 9.4 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.1
Steals 5.0 6.3
Fouls 16.1 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA GONZ
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 78.7 77.4
% of Possessions with ALA GONZ
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 51.9%
3 Point Attempt 34.9% 21.3%
Player Fouled 21.0% 21.4%
Turnover 12.5% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA GONZ
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 34.0% 31.9%