NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA MSU
Points 80.2 78.1
Total Points   158.3
Points From 2-Pointers 30.4 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 34.7 19.1
Points From Free Throws 15.1 16.2
Shooting ALA MSU
Field Goals Made 26.8 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 60.6 62.2
Field Goal % 44.2% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 28.5 43.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.0 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 15.1 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 22.4
Free Throw % 76.4% 72.5%
Ball Control ALA MSU
Rebounds 37.3 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 11.2
Turnovers 11.3 8.8
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.1
Steals 5.0 7.1
Fouls 16.9 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA MSU
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 75.3
% of Possessions with ALA MSU
2 Point Attempt 33.4% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 37.4% 22.1%
Player Fouled 22.4% 23.1%
Turnover 15.5% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA MSU
Shot Blocked 6.8% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 29.7%