NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HARV UNH
Points 73.4 61.0
Total Points   134.3
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 29.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 20.3
Points From Free Throws 13.3 10.8
Shooting HARV UNH
Field Goals Made 26.6 21.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 55.9
Field Goal % 48.6% 38.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.6% 45.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 29.1%
Free Throws Made 13.3 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 15.6
Free Throw % 80.7% 68.9%
Ball Control HARV UNH
Rebounds 34.8 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 9.0
Turnovers 9.6 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.4 1.8
Steals 7.4 5.8
Fouls 12.5 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Harvard

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HARV UNH
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 64.9 65.2
% of Possessions with HARV UNH
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 29.9%
Player Fouled 20.9% 18.7%
Turnover 14.3% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 11.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HARV UNH
Shot Blocked 3.2% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 24.7%