NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP GRC
Points 61.8 79.0
Total Points   140.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 20.6
Points From Free Throws 10.8 19.1
Shooting VALP GRC
Field Goals Made 22.1 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 57.1
Field Goal % 36.8% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 10.8 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 25.1
Free Throw % 70.2% 76.0%
Ball Control VALP GRC
Rebounds 31.1 43.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 30.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 12.4
Turnovers 11.3 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.7
Steals 4.9 7.2
Fouls 16.6 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Valparaiso

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP GRC
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 72.9
% of Possessions with VALP GRC
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 22.9%
Player Fouled 19.5% 23.4%
Turnover 15.8% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP GRC
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 36.4%