NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP MOSU
Points 65.4 75.6
Total Points   141.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 19.5
Points From Free Throws 8.8 12.8
Shooting VALP MOSU
Field Goals Made 24.4 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 64.7 60.0
Field Goal % 37.6% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 41.1% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 8.8 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 12.5 18.2
Free Throw % 70.2% 70.3%
Ball Control VALP MOSU
Rebounds 32.8 43.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 32.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 11.3
Turnovers 7.8 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.3
Steals 5.3 4.0
Fouls 13.9 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP MOSU
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 71.2
% of Possessions with VALP MOSU
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 23.2%
Player Fouled 17.2% 19.8%
Turnover 11.1% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP MOSU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 32.5%