NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP DEP
Points 73.9 70.4
Total Points   144.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.6 18.8
Points From Free Throws 9.0 13.9
Shooting VALP DEP
Field Goals Made 27.8 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.9 53.5
Field Goal % 45.0% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 16.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 9.0 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 18.8
Free Throw % 70.2% 73.8%
Ball Control VALP DEP
Rebounds 32.8 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 7.4
Turnovers 8.8 12.2
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.1
Steals 6.4 4.9
Fouls 15.4 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Valparaiso

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP DEP
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 64.8
% of Possessions with VALP DEP
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 21.5%
Player Fouled 16.5% 22.1%
Turnover 12.7% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP DEP
Shot Blocked 3.9% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 24.0%