NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC CCSU
Points 65.2 73.4
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 24.9
Points From Free Throws 8.8 13.6
Shooting HC CCSU
Field Goals Made 24.5 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 56.6
Field Goal % 43.1% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.0% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 8.8 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 13.3 19.1
Free Throw % 66.3% 71.4%
Ball Control HC CCSU
Rebounds 33.5 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 7.5
Turnovers 9.6 6.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.0
Steals 3.6 6.3
Fouls 14.0 11.1

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC CCSU
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 67.6
% of Possessions with HC CCSU
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 27.9%
Player Fouled 16.5% 21.0%
Turnover 14.4% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC CCSU
Shot Blocked 7.2% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 22.2%