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Valparaiso at Purdue
Fri Dec 4, 2020
7:00pm ET
West Lafayette, IN
Valparaiso at Purdue: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Purdue by 14.5, Total Points: 139.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | VALP | adv | PUR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 18-13-0 | 21-16-2 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 12-9-0 | 9-13-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 4-1-0 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6-0 | 6-4-0 | |
| Home | 6-10-0 | 7-8-1 | |
| Away | 12-3-0 | 14-8-1 |
Valparaiso Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Trinity Christian | -- | W by 39 | -- |
| 11/10 | Home | IUPUI | -3.5 | L by 10 | -13.5 |
| 11/14 | Home | WI-Grn Bay | -3.5 | W by 5 | +1.5 |
| 11/17 | Away | Illinois | +29.5 | L by 23 | +6.5 |
| 11/21 | Home | W Illinois | -2.5 | W by 7 | +4.5 |
| 11/25 | Home | Southern | -3.0 | W by 12 | +9.0 |
| 11/29 | Home | Drake | +14.0 | L by 18 | -4.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Belmont | +15.5 | L by 9 | +6.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Central Mich | +3.5 | L by 4 | -0.5 |
| 12/09 | Away | VA Tech | +21.5 | L by 21 | +0.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | Chicago St | -3.0 | L by 1 | -4.0 |
| 12/19 | Home | Samford | +8.5 | L by 18 | -9.5 |
| 12/29 | Away | Elon | +5.0 | L by 4 | +1.0 |
| 01/03 | Home | Bradley | +10.5 | L by 25 | -14.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | IL-Chicago | +12.5 | L by 6 | +6.5 |
| 01/10 | Home | S Illinois | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
| 01/14 | Away | Illinois St | +10.0 | W by 9 | +19.0 |
| 01/17 | Away | Evansville | +7.0 | L by 3 | +4.0 |
| 01/20 | Home | IL-Chicago | +3.5 | W by 7 | +10.5 |
| 01/24 | Away | S Illinois | +13.5 | L by 6 | +7.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Missouri St | +4.0 | L by 11 | -7.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | Drake | +19.5 | L by 11 | +8.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Evansville | -1.5 | L by 1 | -2.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Indiana St | +20.5 | L by 40 | -19.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | Belmont | +6.5 | L by 18 | -11.5 |
| 02/14 | Home | N Iowa | +7.5 | L by 19 | -11.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Missouri St | +13.0 | L by 8 | +5.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Indiana St | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Murray St | +13.0 | L by 12 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | Away | N Iowa | +16.0 | L by 14 | +2.0 |
| 03/03 | Home | Illinois St | +5.5 | W by 3 | +8.5 |
| 03/07 | Neutral | Belmont | +14.0 | L by 25 | -11.0 |
Purdue Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Samford | -19.5 | W by 53 | +33.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Morehead St | -29.5 | W by 30 | +0.5 |
| 11/13 | Home | Xavier | -17.0 | W by 12 | -5.0 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Gonzaga | -5.5 | W by 10 | +4.5 |
| 11/21 | Neutral | Tennessee | -3.5 | W by 4 | +0.5 |
| 11/22 | Neutral | Marquette | -3.0 | W by 3 | 0.0 |
| 11/28 | Home | TX Southern | -32.0 | W by 32 | 0.0 |
| 12/01 | Away | Northwestern | -5.5 | L by 4 | -9.5 |
| 12/04 | Home | Iowa | -13.5 | W by 19 | +5.5 |
| 12/09 | Neutral | Alabama | -5.5 | W by 6 | +0.5 |
| 12/16 | Neutral | Arizona | +2.0 | W by 8 | +10.0 |
| 12/21 | Home | Jacksonville | -32.5 | W by 43 | +10.5 |
| 12/29 | Home | E Kentucky | -29.0 | W by 27 | -2.0 |
| 01/02 | Away | Maryland | -6.5 | W by 14 | +7.5 |
| 01/05 | Home | Illinois | -10.5 | W by 5 | -5.5 |
| 01/09 | Away | Nebraska | -7.5 | L by 16 | -23.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | Penn St | -18.0 | W by 17 | -1.0 |
| 01/16 | Away | Indiana | -9.5 | W by 21 | +11.5 |
| 01/20 | Away | Iowa | -6.5 | W by 14 | +7.5 |
| 01/23 | Home | Michigan | -18.0 | W by 32 | +14.0 |
| 01/28 | Away | Rutgers | -10.0 | W by 8 | -2.0 |
| 01/31 | Home | Northwestern | -14.0 | W by 9 | -5.0 |
| 02/04 | Away | Wisconsin | -2.5 | W by 6 | +3.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | Indiana | -17.0 | W by 20 | +3.0 |
| 02/15 | Home | Minnesota | -16.5 | W by 8 | -8.5 |
| 02/18 | Away | Ohio St | -8.0 | L by 4 | -12.0 |
| 02/22 | Home | Rutgers | -14.5 | W by 28 | +13.5 |
| 02/25 | Away | Michigan | -13.5 | W by 8 | -5.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Michigan St | -10.0 | W by 6 | -4.0 |
| 03/05 | Away | Illinois | +2.5 | W by 6 | +8.5 |
| 03/10 | Home | Wisconsin | -10.0 | W by 8 | -2.0 |
| 03/15 | Neutral | Michigan St | -7.5 | W by 5 | -2.5 |
| 03/16 | Neutral | Wisconsin | -6.0 | L by 1 | -7.0 |
| 03/22 | Neutral | Grambling St | -27.0 | W by 28 | +1.0 |
| 03/24 | Neutral | Utah St | -11.5 | W by 39 | +27.5 |
| 03/29 | Neutral | Gonzaga | -4.5 | W by 12 | +7.5 |
| 03/31 | Neutral | Tennessee | -3.0 | W by 6 | +3.0 |
| 04/06 | Neutral | NC State | -9.5 | W by 13 | +3.5 |
| 04/08 | Neutral | Connecticut | +7.0 | L by 15 | -8.0 |
| PUR -14.5 | Open | -16.0 | High | -16.5 |
| Last | -15.0 | Low | -14.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1066 games where the closing line favored the home team by 13.5 to 15.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Purdue won the game 991 times (93.0%).
- The team like Valparaiso won the game 75 times (7.0%).
- The team like Valparaiso did better against the spread, going 527-521-18 (50.3% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 25 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 2 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Purdue did better against the spread, going 15-10 (60.0% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 3.0 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -14.5 | -15.0 | -14.5 |
| Open | -16.5 | -16.5 | -16.5 |
| History | |||
| 12/04 06:58 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 06:25 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 06:24 PM | -- | -15.0 | -- |
| 12/04 05:52 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 05:13 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 04:34 PM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 12/04 04:25 PM | -- | -- | -14.5 |
| 12/04 04:20 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 02:55 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 02:34 PM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 02:05 PM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 01:32 PM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 12:23 PM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 11:35 AM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 10:35 AM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 10:26 AM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 10:24 AM | -- | -15.0 | -- |
| 12/04 09:58 AM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 09:34 AM | -- | -15.5 | -- |
| 12/04 09:25 AM | -- | -- | -15.0 |
| 12/04 09:19 AM | -15.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 08:45 AM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 12/04 08:34 AM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 08:25 AM | -- | -- | -16.5 |
| 12/04 07:58 AM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 02:58 AM | -16.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 12:04 AM | -- | -16.0 | -- |
| 12/03 11:55 PM | -- | -- | -16.0 |
| 12/03 10:31 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/03 10:25 PM | -- | -- | -16.5 |
| 12/03 07:24 PM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 12/03 07:11 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
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