NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP PUR
Points 59.4 88.7
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 46.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 23.9
Points From Free Throws 7.0 18.3
Shooting VALP PUR
Field Goals Made 22.6 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 63.1 58.2
Field Goal % 35.9% 53.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 39.5% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 44.2%
Free Throws Made 7.0 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 9.9 25.2
Free Throw % 70.2% 72.8%
Ball Control VALP PUR
Rebounds 24.9 47.9
Rebounds - Defensive 17.2 34.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 13.8
Turnovers 8.6 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.7
Steals 5.2 5.3
Fouls 17.7 10.5

Playing Style Advantage: Purdue

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP PUR
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 74.3
% of Possessions with VALP PUR
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 21.3%
Player Fouled 15.0% 25.3%
Turnover 12.3% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP PUR
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.3% 44.5%