NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP UIC
Points 65.7 73.9
Total Points   139.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 25.7
Points From Free Throws 11.9 10.6
Shooting VALP UIC
Field Goals Made 23.7 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 59.0
Field Goal % 39.3% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 42.7% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.4% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 11.9 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 15.4
Free Throw % 70.2% 68.8%
Ball Control VALP UIC
Rebounds 35.0 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 8.0
Turnovers 10.4 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.8
Steals 5.7 5.6
Fouls 12.8 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: IL-Chicago

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP UIC
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 68.1
% of Possessions with VALP UIC
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 26.8%
Player Fouled 19.9% 17.8%
Turnover 14.5% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP UIC
Shot Blocked 6.7% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 23.5%