NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC NE
Points 65.1 75.2
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 23.3
Points From Free Throws 8.6 12.6
Shooting HC NE
Field Goals Made 24.3 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 56.7
Field Goal % 44.9% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 8.6 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 13.0 17.1
Free Throw % 66.3% 73.5%
Ball Control HC NE
Rebounds 28.7 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 9.1
Turnovers 10.0 7.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.3
Steals 3.6 5.9
Fouls 13.8 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC NE
Total Possessions 65.5
Effective Scoring Chances 61.6 67.0
% of Possessions with HC NE
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 27.6%
Player Fouled 18.3% 21.1%
Turnover 15.3% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC NE
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 19.0% 28.6%