NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC NAVY
Points 68.3 69.3
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 20.8
Points From Free Throws 10.7 15.0
Shooting HC NAVY
Field Goals Made 25.3 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 52.3 58.2
Field Goal % 48.4% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 43.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 10.7 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 21.1
Free Throw % 66.3% 71.0%
Ball Control HC NAVY
Rebounds 33.6 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 11.1
Turnovers 10.4 6.4
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.0
Steals 2.7 5.3
Fouls 15.9 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC NAVY
Total Possessions 65.6
Effective Scoring Chances 62.3 70.4
% of Possessions with HC NAVY
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 24.8%
Player Fouled 21.6% 24.2%
Turnover 15.9% 9.7%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 4.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC NAVY
Shot Blocked 3.6% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 29.5%