NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC COLG
Points 60.1 74.2
Total Points   134.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.3 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 26.1
Points From Free Throws 7.8 10.9
Shooting HC COLG
Field Goals Made 22.7 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 56.4
Field Goal % 40.3% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 7.8 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 11.7 16.4
Free Throw % 66.3% 66.6%
Ball Control HC COLG
Rebounds 31.4 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 7.4
Turnovers 8.9 6.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.1
Steals 3.3 5.7
Fouls 12.9 10.3

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC COLG
Total Possessions 65.3
Effective Scoring Chances 63.0 66.0
% of Possessions with HC COLG
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 29.6%
Player Fouled 15.7% 19.7%
Turnover 13.6% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 5.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC COLG
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 18.7% 22.9%