NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VALP ILST
Points 64.3 69.9
Total Points   134.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 17.4
Points From Free Throws 8.5 13.7
Shooting VALP ILST
Field Goals Made 24.2 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 55.0
Field Goal % 41.4% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 8.5 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 12.1 18.8
Free Throw % 70.2% 73.0%
Ball Control VALP ILST
Rebounds 31.3 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 9.9
Turnovers 9.1 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 1.6
Steals 4.4 4.9
Fouls 15.2 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VALP ILST
Total Possessions 66.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 66.6
% of Possessions with VALP ILST
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 23.5%
Player Fouled 19.0% 22.8%
Turnover 13.6% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken VALP ILST
Shot Blocked 3.0% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 30.5%