NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC MD
Points 55.6 77.3
Total Points   132.9
Points From 2-Pointers 29.7 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 23.3
Points From Free Throws 9.2 18.1
Shooting HC MD
Field Goals Made 20.4 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 55.5
Field Goal % 37.8% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 41.1% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 9.2 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 13.9 24.7
Free Throw % 66.3% 73.1%
Ball Control HC MD
Rebounds 29.8 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 10.3
Turnovers 11.2 6.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.4
Steals 3.0 5.9
Fouls 17.2 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC MD
Total Possessions 66.4
Effective Scoring Chances 61.9 70.1
% of Possessions with HC MD
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 27.5%
Player Fouled 19.3% 25.9%
Turnover 16.8% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC MD
Shot Blocked 8.1% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 18.7% 30.8%