NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC BU
Points 65.6 71.4
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 30.0 29.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 29.3
Points From Free Throws 10.7 12.5
Shooting HC BU
Field Goals Made 23.3 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 57.1
Field Goal % 43.9% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 14.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 45.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.9% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 10.7 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 17.3
Free Throw % 66.3% 72.2%
Ball Control HC BU
Rebounds 32.3 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 5.7 8.5
Turnovers 9.3 7.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.1
Steals 3.7 5.9
Fouls 14.0 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Boston U

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC BU
Total Possessions 66.0
Effective Scoring Chances 62.5 67.3
% of Possessions with HC BU
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 32.3%
Player Fouled 20.8% 21.2%
Turnover 14.0% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC BU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 17.5% 24.3%