NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU BAY
Points 72.5 69.4
Total Points   141.9
Points From 2-Pointers 40.4 28.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 24.6
Points From Free Throws 13.2 16.0
Shooting ISU BAY
Field Goals Made 26.5 22.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 50.1
Field Goal % 46.9% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 14.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 26.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 17.9 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 13.2 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 21.9
Free Throw % 70.8% 73.1%
Ball Control ISU BAY
Rebounds 28.6 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 10.5
Turnovers 9.0 14.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.8
Steals 9.2 5.6
Fouls 16.3 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Baylor

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU BAY
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 64.4
% of Possessions with ISU BAY
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 32.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 29.6%
Player Fouled 23.4% 23.8%
Turnover 13.2% 21.3%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 13.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU BAY
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 34.2%