NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU OKST
Points 75.9 60.2
Total Points   136.2
Points From 2-Pointers 45.4 24.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 22.6
Points From Free Throws 11.9 13.0
Shooting ISU OKST
Field Goals Made 28.9 19.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 49.4
Field Goal % 48.5% 40.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 12.3
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 23.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 29.4%
Free Throws Made 11.9 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 18.3
Free Throw % 70.8% 71.2%
Ball Control ISU OKST
Rebounds 33.7 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 8.5
Turnovers 8.7 16.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.5
Steals 11.0 5.2
Fouls 14.5 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU OKST
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 61.2
% of Possessions with ISU OKST
2 Point Attempt 53.4% 30.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 32.7%
Player Fouled 21.7% 21.1%
Turnover 12.7% 23.4%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 16.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU OKST
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 26.3%