NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU IOWA
Points 80.3 72.6
Total Points   152.9
Points From 2-Pointers 43.8 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 19.7
Points From Free Throws 14.6 15.7
Shooting ISU IOWA
Field Goals Made 29.2 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 55.0
Field Goal % 47.3% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 42.8 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 14.6 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 20.3
Free Throw % 70.4% 77.4%
Ball Control ISU IOWA
Rebounds 35.0 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 8.6
Turnovers 8.7 12.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.9
Steals 8.5 5.0
Fouls 15.4 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +1.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU IOWA
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 67.5
% of Possessions with ISU IOWA
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 25.3%
Player Fouled 20.7% 21.5%
Turnover 12.2% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU IOWA
Shot Blocked 7.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 26.7%