NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU KU
Points 69.6 67.9
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 16.9
Points From Free Throws 13.0 12.7
Shooting ISU KU
Field Goals Made 24.4 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 52.5
Field Goal % 40.9% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 13.0 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 17.8
Free Throw % 70.8% 71.4%
Ball Control ISU KU
Rebounds 32.1 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 8.1
Turnovers 9.0 14.1
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.6
Steals 8.7 5.9
Fouls 14.1 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU KU
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 63.9
% of Possessions with ISU KU
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.1% 23.6%
Player Fouled 20.0% 20.1%
Turnover 12.9% 20.2%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 12.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU KU
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 26.4%