NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ISU ASU
Points 81.4 70.6
Total Points   151.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 28.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 27.8
Points From Free Throws 17.4 14.1
Shooting ISU ASU
Field Goals Made 27.9 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 55.2
Field Goal % 48.1% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 29.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 48.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 17.4 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 19.3
Free Throw % 75.1% 73.2%
Ball Control ISU ASU
Rebounds 36.3 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 7.3
Turnovers 10.8 13.8
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.6
Steals 8.7 5.6
Fouls 16.5 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ISU ASU
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 66.9
% of Possessions with ISU ASU
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 36.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 30.9%
Player Fouled 22.8% 22.5%
Turnover 14.7% 18.8%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ISU ASU
Shot Blocked 6.6% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 21.2%